Understanding and estimating a phenomenon requires prior knowledge and not just mere speculations especially when it comes to scientific estimation. The unfolding of events and catastrophic changes can only be explained further with the help of scientific estimation. Now, what exactly is estimation? It is when we look for the closest possible answer, an approximation of a value or just a value that is close enough and based on that we can make our decisions and present the results to the desired audience or authority.
With the help of scientific estimation, we can evade both major and minor errors as it helps to identify them and take care of them in advance. Thus, scientific estimation also saves the organization or an individual from many kinds of losses. Estimation also takes into account how much effort, money, resources and time has to be invested in a certain phenomenon. There are many factors on which the estimation is based, like past data available to us, documents relating to the phenomenon, potential risks and our own assumptions.
What Are Some of the Scientific Estimation Techniques?
Now that we have briefly looked over the definition of scientific estimation and its need, let us take a quick glance over the different types of scientific estimation techniques. Before we move on to the explanation of the different scientific estimation techniques, one must remember that estimation is different for every field and therefore one estimation might work for a particular sub-sector of a scientific field might not work for another sub-sector of the scientific field.
There the categorisation is done on a broad basis rather than specific to any particular field.
- Estimate: The first step is to go through the articles and research that has already been made on the topic and study it. After this, you can make a scientific estimate (quite a rough one) on risks, advantages, areas to work on, areas to know more about, correlation, areas that are yet undiscovered and unknown.
- Learning: As we move deep into the project, one learns and unlearns many things based on which the estimation also changes.
- History: Referring to historical data is of utmost importance as it can help you in the accuracy of your estimations.
- WBS: This is an excellent tool for estimating methodology and can validate both your cost and time.
- Re-estimation: By the end of the project, it becomes crucial to re-estimate and overlooks what you learnt and unlearnt in the project.
A scientific estimation methodology includes three proper steps, namely:
- Analogous estimating
- Parametric estimating
- Three-point estimating or reserve analysis
Thus, with the help of these estimations, one can gather enough information about the activity that is going on which can help them immensely in their further research.
How to Get Better at Scientific Estimation?
As we have discussed various ways with the help of which we can make estimations, let us now get closer to the correct answers and make ourselves better at scientific estimations. A skilled estimation is a great asset to the company and the individuals, therefore let us look at different ways to get better at estimation and make the most accurate scientific estimation.
1. One point estimating
Under this technique, the estimates are made per activity as the entire phenomenon is divided into sub-activities. So the estimator may look out for different factors like time consumption, expert judgement, historical information, etc. This technique is a little problematic and might lead to negative effects also, therefore, it is better to go by this rule if the activity is of less importance.
2. Analogous estimating
Another method of scientific estimation is analogous estimating. Under this technique, the estimations are made by taking in the record the past activities done by the team and inter-relating it to the present activity. As no other record is known, this is where analogous estimating plays its role. So the expert judgement and historical data play a great role in analogous estimating.
3. Parametric estimating
In this scientific estimation methodology, the estimation is made by drawing relations from two different axes: the x-axis which is the variables and the y-axis which is the activity. The data that comes out from the relationship is by drawing parallels by looking at the previous historical records, industry requirements, standard metrics and other similar sources.
4. Reserve analysis and the three-point estimating
Analysing what could possibly go wrong or right in a task and then stating this range thrice is called three-point estimating. This helps the estimators to analyse the range of what can go wrong and right in an activity. On the other hand, reverse analysis means identifying risks and eliminating the risks by managing them. This analysis reduces the risk of time and cost estimation and makes the scientific estimation more accurate.
India to Conduct its Own First Scientific Estimation
Recently, India has also announced to conduct its own scientific estimation. On elephant’s day, the minister of forest and climate, Bhupinder Yadav made an official announcement regarding the same. This will be the first scientific estimation regarding the population of elephants and conducting a tiger census as well. It is said that the estimation will take place around 2022, but the exact take is yet to be declared.
What will be the estimation about? This research is basically a scientific approach to conservation and along with this, it includes the involvement of the local communities which includes their tradition of conservation. The policies that will be laid down by the officials will include various enforcement policies that will make it illegal to poach elephants and stop the trade of ivory. It also aims at providing better treatment to the elephants and introduces more elephants into the sanctuaries as the population of Asian elephants is quite high.
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